Is Turkey going to establish diplomatic representation with Armenia and open its border with this neighboring country? Since the Turkish president's attendance at a soccer match between the two countries' national teams in Yerevan last year, a process of rapprochement has been on the table.
The need for stability in the Caucasus and the increasing assertiveness of Russia in the region, as well as the imperative for addressing historical animosity between the peoples of the two countries, requires a properly working relationship between Turkey and Armenia.
This is a rational choice. But governments do not act only on rationality. They are sentimental, like individuals. Yet the sentimentality of the Turks and the Armenians has not brought anything but enmity between these two peoples and their imprisonment in history. Now the two neighboring countries are being tested: They will either move along a path toward removing the burden of the past, seeing many opportunities along the way or remain hostage to history.
Anyhow, it is not civilized to be neighbors and keep the borders closed and not establish diplomatic contacts.
It is a question of whether they will surrender to nationalism or not. We know that the Armenian issue in Turkey and the Turkish question among the Armenians fan nationalism. Some groups on both sides have obvious interests in keeping this issue bleeding so that nationalism can remain alive.
Visionary politicians can change history. The pain and suffering of the past are real. But how long can we live in the past? Politicians should, of course, be respectful to the past generations that suffered, but they also have responsibilities for living people and for future generations.
We are at a crossroads. There are now some positive signs that the dialogue between Turkey and Armenia may result in some concrete steps. Yet it appears that Azerbaijan is unhappy with the diplomatic contacts between Turkey and Armenia. Some in Azerbaijan are even furious, regarding such a rapprochement as a betrayal. There is no doubt that the Armenians should withdraw from the occupied Azerbaijani territories. Neither international law nor universal ethics allow for the annexation of territory by force. The Armenians should be persuaded or forced to withdraw from Azeri territories.
Armenia's international and regional standing will be enhanced with a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Otherwise, it will be isolated in the region with support coming only from Russia. But Armenia's reliance or even dependence on Russia seriously hamper its standing in its relations with the West. If the tension between Russia and Europe or the US increases, Armenia will be pushed further into the Russian orbit. So in order to reduce its dependence on Russia and be a free agent in global politics, Armenia should resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.
The Azerbaijanis should also be prepared for a negotiated settlement. The country cannot surrender to those who use the Nagorno-Karabakh issue to mobilize the masses and garner political legitimacy and power. It is not hard to see that this issue functions in Azerbaijan as the Cyprus issue functions in Turkey: fanning nationalism and justifying authoritarian tendencies and practices by pointing out a national "enemy" or cause.
This is not the time to play such a simple and silly game.
Concerning the role Turkey plays in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, Azerbaijanis should ask this question: Has Turkey's boycott of Armenia brought about a solution? It may be time to come up with some new initiatives to resolve the territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Stability and peace in the southern Caucasus require a solution to this problem. No party involved can benefit from disturbances in the region.
Azerbaijan's strong reaction to Turkey is not reasonable at all. It is likely to push Azerbaijan toward Russia, the primary supporter of Armenia's occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh. Can the Azerbaijani leadership explain this to its people: turning their back on Turkey and embracing Russia, the ally of Armenia, to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh question?
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has threatened to cut off natural gas sales to Turkey. It has not been mentioned yet, but he can also close the Baku-Ceyhan-Tbilisi pipeline. These would certainly harm Turkey, but they would result in Azerbaijan's dependence on Russia. They should understand that Turkey is their only outlet for reaching out to the world beyond Russia.
It is time to bury historical animosities in the southern Caucasus.
13 April 2009
The need for stability in the Caucasus and the increasing assertiveness of Russia in the region, as well as the imperative for addressing historical animosity between the peoples of the two countries, requires a properly working relationship between Turkey and Armenia.
This is a rational choice. But governments do not act only on rationality. They are sentimental, like individuals. Yet the sentimentality of the Turks and the Armenians has not brought anything but enmity between these two peoples and their imprisonment in history. Now the two neighboring countries are being tested: They will either move along a path toward removing the burden of the past, seeing many opportunities along the way or remain hostage to history.
Anyhow, it is not civilized to be neighbors and keep the borders closed and not establish diplomatic contacts.
It is a question of whether they will surrender to nationalism or not. We know that the Armenian issue in Turkey and the Turkish question among the Armenians fan nationalism. Some groups on both sides have obvious interests in keeping this issue bleeding so that nationalism can remain alive.
Visionary politicians can change history. The pain and suffering of the past are real. But how long can we live in the past? Politicians should, of course, be respectful to the past generations that suffered, but they also have responsibilities for living people and for future generations.
We are at a crossroads. There are now some positive signs that the dialogue between Turkey and Armenia may result in some concrete steps. Yet it appears that Azerbaijan is unhappy with the diplomatic contacts between Turkey and Armenia. Some in Azerbaijan are even furious, regarding such a rapprochement as a betrayal. There is no doubt that the Armenians should withdraw from the occupied Azerbaijani territories. Neither international law nor universal ethics allow for the annexation of territory by force. The Armenians should be persuaded or forced to withdraw from Azeri territories.
Armenia's international and regional standing will be enhanced with a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Otherwise, it will be isolated in the region with support coming only from Russia. But Armenia's reliance or even dependence on Russia seriously hamper its standing in its relations with the West. If the tension between Russia and Europe or the US increases, Armenia will be pushed further into the Russian orbit. So in order to reduce its dependence on Russia and be a free agent in global politics, Armenia should resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.
The Azerbaijanis should also be prepared for a negotiated settlement. The country cannot surrender to those who use the Nagorno-Karabakh issue to mobilize the masses and garner political legitimacy and power. It is not hard to see that this issue functions in Azerbaijan as the Cyprus issue functions in Turkey: fanning nationalism and justifying authoritarian tendencies and practices by pointing out a national "enemy" or cause.
This is not the time to play such a simple and silly game.
Concerning the role Turkey plays in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, Azerbaijanis should ask this question: Has Turkey's boycott of Armenia brought about a solution? It may be time to come up with some new initiatives to resolve the territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Stability and peace in the southern Caucasus require a solution to this problem. No party involved can benefit from disturbances in the region.
Azerbaijan's strong reaction to Turkey is not reasonable at all. It is likely to push Azerbaijan toward Russia, the primary supporter of Armenia's occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh. Can the Azerbaijani leadership explain this to its people: turning their back on Turkey and embracing Russia, the ally of Armenia, to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh question?
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has threatened to cut off natural gas sales to Turkey. It has not been mentioned yet, but he can also close the Baku-Ceyhan-Tbilisi pipeline. These would certainly harm Turkey, but they would result in Azerbaijan's dependence on Russia. They should understand that Turkey is their only outlet for reaching out to the world beyond Russia.
It is time to bury historical animosities in the southern Caucasus.
13 April 2009
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