Once Turks thought that Turkey was located in a very hostile environment and was surrounded by enemy nations. Now things seem different; they think that the threat to their country comes mainly from afar, the United States.
A recent public opinion survey conducted by MetroPOLL on the threat perception of the people of Turkey rings alarm bells. As a person who was part of the research team, I was shocked when I learned the answer to a question we asked about “the greatest threat to Turkey.” People point to two countries, the US and Israel, both of which are supposed to be Turkey’s allies and neither of which Turkey has ever been involved in a hot conflict. According to the poll, 43 percent of people feel threatened by the US and 24 percent by Israel, while only 3 percent regard Iran as a threat and 2 percent Greece.
It is good to see threat perception is down so much for regional countries, some of which are considered Turkey’s historical enemies, but bad that the perceived threat of the US and Israel is so high. To conduct a strategic relationship with such public opinion is not possible in the long run, especially in a democratic country.
I keep repeating in this column that democratization at home is having serious foreign policy implications. In a globalized world, as it is today, people are better informed about developments abroad and the effects on their lives. In an open society and with the means of communication these issues are widely debated. Thus people are increasingly empowered by democratization and globalization to influence decision-making bodies. In a democratic government, no one can remain indifferent to what people perceive and believe.
Without winning the hearts and minds of the people, a lofty discourse of friendship and alliance cannot be sustained. Therefore, people’s threat perceptions should be addressed. This cannot be done only by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), though it should really strive to tell the people what they believe in when they talk of alliance and cooperation with the US in particular. In fact, there is no significant difference of opinion among the voters for the AK Party and the rest as revealed by the MetroPOLL research. As always, foreign policy issues cut across domestic political fragmentation.
While Turkey preaches peace, stability, cooperation, interdependence, and mediation abroad, it is unacceptable to plague ourselves with an unreasonable, unfounded threat perception that would restrain Turkish foreign policy.
To point to the underlying reasons for the perceived threat from the US The Wall Street Journal used the news about the research with a subtitle, “Ask Uncle Sam.” It is indeed true that this perception has a lot to do with US foreign policy. The occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan, the Armenian issue regularly surfacing in the US congress, pressures over the Iran issue and the unconditional support extended to Israel are the main policy issues that raise eyebrows about the US. One should also add the perceived support of the US for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) or lack of support to fight against it, which is taken as a proof of the support anyway.
This is what the new US ambassador, Francis J. Ricciardone, to Ankara is going to find in Turkey: a very skeptical public. As the Obama factor could not be a remedy for the deteriorating image of the US in Turkey, he should pray that no shocking document comes out of WikiLeaks while he is serving in Ankara.
The number two threat to Turkey as perceived by the people is Israel, according to the MetroPOLL survey. Given the recent tension between the two countries, this may not be surprising. But if there are going to be future Turkish-Israeli relations, such a perception is poisonous. Yet Israel cannot expect better if it continues its policy of using violence to settle the problems that it encounters in the region. I am not only talking about the flotilla aggression but also refer to its dealings with the Palestinians both in Gaza and the West Bank as well as Lebanon, Syria, and Iran. The Israelis should understand that the future of Turkish-Israeli relations depends on the relationships it develops in the region. No Turkish government can develop normal cooperative relations with Israel while a huge majority of people in Turkey are deeply annoyed by Israel’s aggressive regional policy.
It may really take time to repair the damaged image of Israel among the people. Israel should care what “people think.” It would be wrong if Israelis think it is all about the “Islamist AK Party” government, and that when it is gone everything will be normal. Not really: When we look at it in detail, it is clear it is not only the AK Party. For instance on the question whether Turkey should freeze its relations with Israel or develop them, 71 percent of Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) voters, 73 percent of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) voters, 60 percent of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) voters and 63 percent of the AK Party voters say they should be “frozen.”
In short, what people think and perceive matters, especially in a developing democracy like Turkey.
A recent public opinion survey conducted by MetroPOLL on the threat perception of the people of Turkey rings alarm bells. As a person who was part of the research team, I was shocked when I learned the answer to a question we asked about “the greatest threat to Turkey.” People point to two countries, the US and Israel, both of which are supposed to be Turkey’s allies and neither of which Turkey has ever been involved in a hot conflict. According to the poll, 43 percent of people feel threatened by the US and 24 percent by Israel, while only 3 percent regard Iran as a threat and 2 percent Greece.
It is good to see threat perception is down so much for regional countries, some of which are considered Turkey’s historical enemies, but bad that the perceived threat of the US and Israel is so high. To conduct a strategic relationship with such public opinion is not possible in the long run, especially in a democratic country.
I keep repeating in this column that democratization at home is having serious foreign policy implications. In a globalized world, as it is today, people are better informed about developments abroad and the effects on their lives. In an open society and with the means of communication these issues are widely debated. Thus people are increasingly empowered by democratization and globalization to influence decision-making bodies. In a democratic government, no one can remain indifferent to what people perceive and believe.
Without winning the hearts and minds of the people, a lofty discourse of friendship and alliance cannot be sustained. Therefore, people’s threat perceptions should be addressed. This cannot be done only by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), though it should really strive to tell the people what they believe in when they talk of alliance and cooperation with the US in particular. In fact, there is no significant difference of opinion among the voters for the AK Party and the rest as revealed by the MetroPOLL research. As always, foreign policy issues cut across domestic political fragmentation.
While Turkey preaches peace, stability, cooperation, interdependence, and mediation abroad, it is unacceptable to plague ourselves with an unreasonable, unfounded threat perception that would restrain Turkish foreign policy.
To point to the underlying reasons for the perceived threat from the US The Wall Street Journal used the news about the research with a subtitle, “Ask Uncle Sam.” It is indeed true that this perception has a lot to do with US foreign policy. The occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan, the Armenian issue regularly surfacing in the US congress, pressures over the Iran issue and the unconditional support extended to Israel are the main policy issues that raise eyebrows about the US. One should also add the perceived support of the US for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) or lack of support to fight against it, which is taken as a proof of the support anyway.
This is what the new US ambassador, Francis J. Ricciardone, to Ankara is going to find in Turkey: a very skeptical public. As the Obama factor could not be a remedy for the deteriorating image of the US in Turkey, he should pray that no shocking document comes out of WikiLeaks while he is serving in Ankara.
The number two threat to Turkey as perceived by the people is Israel, according to the MetroPOLL survey. Given the recent tension between the two countries, this may not be surprising. But if there are going to be future Turkish-Israeli relations, such a perception is poisonous. Yet Israel cannot expect better if it continues its policy of using violence to settle the problems that it encounters in the region. I am not only talking about the flotilla aggression but also refer to its dealings with the Palestinians both in Gaza and the West Bank as well as Lebanon, Syria, and Iran. The Israelis should understand that the future of Turkish-Israeli relations depends on the relationships it develops in the region. No Turkish government can develop normal cooperative relations with Israel while a huge majority of people in Turkey are deeply annoyed by Israel’s aggressive regional policy.
It may really take time to repair the damaged image of Israel among the people. Israel should care what “people think.” It would be wrong if Israelis think it is all about the “Islamist AK Party” government, and that when it is gone everything will be normal. Not really: When we look at it in detail, it is clear it is not only the AK Party. For instance on the question whether Turkey should freeze its relations with Israel or develop them, 71 percent of Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) voters, 73 percent of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) voters, 60 percent of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) voters and 63 percent of the AK Party voters say they should be “frozen.”
In short, what people think and perceive matters, especially in a developing democracy like Turkey.
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