The PKK’s raid: predictions and questions

The Kurdistan Workers' Party's (PKK) attack on Aktütün, a military post in Şemdinli near the Iraqi border, took place in the middle of two events.

The first is an ethnic clash which erupted last week between Kurds and Turks in Altınova, a holiday resort on the Aegean coast, leaving two dead. The second is a request from the government that Parliament extend the authorization for cross-border operations into northern Iraq, something which will be voted on this week.
It is clear that the PKK's attack on the Aktütün post is an open challenge to the Turkish military on the eve of the renewal of the authorization for cross-border operations on the one hand and an attempt to provoke further ethnic clashes between Kurds and Turks throughout Turkey on the other.
With the Aktütün raid, the PKK is trying to send the message that it is still strong and capable of staging high-profile operations against military targets. Given the fact that some 350 PKK militants took part in the raid and that the clash continued for seven hours in broad daylight, it would not be inaccurate to assume that the organizational and logistical infrastructure of the PKK is effective despite claims by Turkish security forces that recent cross-border operations destroyed the PKK's infrastructure in northern Iraq.
The latest attack by the PKK will put Turkey's relations with both northern Iraq and the US into question. It was revealed that the terrorists arrived from northern Iraq and hit the military post with long-range weapons from Iraqi soil. This will prompt the question of whether Iraq is a sovereign state capable of controlling its own territory. It is also certain that ability or willingness of the Kurdish authorities in the north to control the PKK's activities will be under debate in Turkey, thus poisoning the development of understanding and cooperation between Turkey and the Kurdish regional government.
The need for continued cross-border military operations in northern Iraq is confirmed by the PKK raid of Aktütün, and Parliament's extension of the authorization for cross-border operations into northern Iraq is now certain.
The US's cooperation will also be questioned. Nationalist anti-Western circles have already started to use the occasion to stir anti-American sentiment, arguing that the PKK is being supported by Turkey's Western allies including the US. Thus it is time for the US to reassert its support for Turkey in the fight against PKK terror.
The government will now face tremendous pressure. Although many, including the military, say that non-military measures are needed to address the root causes of the problem, it will be rather difficult for the government to institute such programs. Even a redirection of funds to southeastern Turkey may encounter bureaucratic resistance and slowdown in the wake of the PKK's assault. Any political scheme put forward to resolve this problem would be unthinkable for some time to come.
The attack by the PKK will certainly put the Democratic Society Party (DTP) in a difficult position, especially in its closure case before the Constitutional Court. Under the influence of growing public anger, the court may well be inclined to close down the party, which is accused of being connected with the PKK.
The Aktütün raid also raises questions in regard to the efficiency of the military's fight against the PKK and its ability to gather intelligence and mobilize its forces in the event of an attack. This time the military will not be able to escape criticism. The loss of 15 Turkish soldiers at a military post that was still vulnerable despite having been attacked five times in the past must be explained to the public. Many questions emerge: Is the Turkish military, which is so outspoken and so uncompromising on domestic political matters, capable of winning the war against the PKK, which is known to have only 5,000 militants? Is the Turkish military wasting its resources and energy on domestic political quarrels, leaving it ineffective against the PKK?
06.10.2008