After months of uncertainty about the future of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and its leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkish politics seem pretty calm now.
The picture is as follows: The ruling party continues to enjoy substantial popular support, while the opposition parties are still unable to present a viable alternative, and the military and the judiciary are adopting a relatively low-profile opposition to the government. Despite this "stable" domestic political scene, Turkey's foreign affairs are going through challenging times.
The war in the Caucasus is the number-one challenge. The conflict involves two indispensable partners for Turkey. Georgia is the only land corridor linking Turkey with the Caspian region and Central Asia, the center of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. Maintaining cooperation with Georgia is therefore crucial for Turkey's strategic width, reaching out the Caspian and Central Asia. Russia, in recent years, has become an important economic partner for Turkey. The early political tension in the aftermath of the cold war was overcome with a strategy of cooperation in the economic and political arenas. But this was based on a non-assertive policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia on the part of both Turkey and Russia. With the invasion of Georgia, it seems that Russia has now moved to an assertive policy in the region, claiming a zone of influence. Instead of confronting Russia bilaterally, the Turkish response has been to propose multilateral diplomacy by suggesting a Caucasia Stability and Cooperation Platform. The idea of the Caucasia Stability and Cooperation Platform sounds timely and functional, but maybe unrealistic given the global and regional dynamics. The key is the attitude of Russia, which seems rather unenthusiastic about the idea. Instead, the Russians prefer to manage the situation within the Commonwealth of Independent States if multilateral diplomacy is needed. Moreover, bringing Armenia and Azerbaijan and, of course, Turkey together within such a platform is not easy. If the Turkish government is really serious about this idea, it should begin developing its relations with Armenia without delay. What about the role of Iran? Such a platform cannot be established by excluding Iran, which has always had a great interest in Caucasian affairs.
Given all these complications and also the reluctance of the West especially the US the initiative may not result in a concrete organization institutionalizing stability and cooperation in the region but lose yet high-level diplomatic contacts. The crisis in the Caucasus has also raised other problems for Turkey in the region and in its relations with the West. It will be difficult for Turkey to engage with both Iran and Syria as these countries move closer to Russia in response to recent developments. If Russia is willing to intensify tensions with the West, Iran and Syria may see this as an opportunity for leverage, putting Turkey in an awkward position. But recent developments in the Caucasus vindicate Turkey's attempts to diversify its energy resources and reduce its dependence on Russian gas. The same is true for Europe, as well. The crisis may, therefore, be an opportunity for Europe to engage with Iran, instead of Russia, as a country linking Caspian and Central Asian energy resources to Europe. The Iraq issue remains a challenge for Turkey, as well. The possible withdrawal of American troops next year may complicate the matter even more if post-occupation Iraq proves incapable of holding itself together. Anyhow, establishing a working relationship with the Kurdish administration in northern Iraq is the key to managing the domestic Kurdish problem and the fight against the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK). Yet a self-sufficient Kurdish administration in northern Iraq may prove to be more difficult to deal with in the absence of American troops in Iraq persuading the Kurds to cooperate with the Turkish government.
Another challenge for Turkish foreign policy is an old one: Cyprus. The upcoming negotiations between presidents Mehmet Ali Talat and Dimitris Christofias have raised hopes about the possibility of a final settlement. Such an outcome will certainly accelerate Turkey's EU integration, an objective recently reasserted by the government as a priority. But it will not be easy to sell any settlement in Cyprus to the Turkish public, which is likely to start a new wave of heated debate provoked by Turkish nationalism. Knowing that foreign policy is never merely a matter of an "externally oriented" set of decisions, but a realm greatly influenced by domestic political developments, we can conclude that the stability of Turkish politics depends on establishing a peaceful regional setting.
25.08.2008
The picture is as follows: The ruling party continues to enjoy substantial popular support, while the opposition parties are still unable to present a viable alternative, and the military and the judiciary are adopting a relatively low-profile opposition to the government. Despite this "stable" domestic political scene, Turkey's foreign affairs are going through challenging times.
The war in the Caucasus is the number-one challenge. The conflict involves two indispensable partners for Turkey. Georgia is the only land corridor linking Turkey with the Caspian region and Central Asia, the center of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. Maintaining cooperation with Georgia is therefore crucial for Turkey's strategic width, reaching out the Caspian and Central Asia. Russia, in recent years, has become an important economic partner for Turkey. The early political tension in the aftermath of the cold war was overcome with a strategy of cooperation in the economic and political arenas. But this was based on a non-assertive policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia on the part of both Turkey and Russia. With the invasion of Georgia, it seems that Russia has now moved to an assertive policy in the region, claiming a zone of influence. Instead of confronting Russia bilaterally, the Turkish response has been to propose multilateral diplomacy by suggesting a Caucasia Stability and Cooperation Platform. The idea of the Caucasia Stability and Cooperation Platform sounds timely and functional, but maybe unrealistic given the global and regional dynamics. The key is the attitude of Russia, which seems rather unenthusiastic about the idea. Instead, the Russians prefer to manage the situation within the Commonwealth of Independent States if multilateral diplomacy is needed. Moreover, bringing Armenia and Azerbaijan and, of course, Turkey together within such a platform is not easy. If the Turkish government is really serious about this idea, it should begin developing its relations with Armenia without delay. What about the role of Iran? Such a platform cannot be established by excluding Iran, which has always had a great interest in Caucasian affairs.
Given all these complications and also the reluctance of the West especially the US the initiative may not result in a concrete organization institutionalizing stability and cooperation in the region but lose yet high-level diplomatic contacts. The crisis in the Caucasus has also raised other problems for Turkey in the region and in its relations with the West. It will be difficult for Turkey to engage with both Iran and Syria as these countries move closer to Russia in response to recent developments. If Russia is willing to intensify tensions with the West, Iran and Syria may see this as an opportunity for leverage, putting Turkey in an awkward position. But recent developments in the Caucasus vindicate Turkey's attempts to diversify its energy resources and reduce its dependence on Russian gas. The same is true for Europe, as well. The crisis may, therefore, be an opportunity for Europe to engage with Iran, instead of Russia, as a country linking Caspian and Central Asian energy resources to Europe. The Iraq issue remains a challenge for Turkey, as well. The possible withdrawal of American troops next year may complicate the matter even more if post-occupation Iraq proves incapable of holding itself together. Anyhow, establishing a working relationship with the Kurdish administration in northern Iraq is the key to managing the domestic Kurdish problem and the fight against the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK). Yet a self-sufficient Kurdish administration in northern Iraq may prove to be more difficult to deal with in the absence of American troops in Iraq persuading the Kurds to cooperate with the Turkish government.
Another challenge for Turkish foreign policy is an old one: Cyprus. The upcoming negotiations between presidents Mehmet Ali Talat and Dimitris Christofias have raised hopes about the possibility of a final settlement. Such an outcome will certainly accelerate Turkey's EU integration, an objective recently reasserted by the government as a priority. But it will not be easy to sell any settlement in Cyprus to the Turkish public, which is likely to start a new wave of heated debate provoked by Turkish nationalism. Knowing that foreign policy is never merely a matter of an "externally oriented" set of decisions, but a realm greatly influenced by domestic political developments, we can conclude that the stability of Turkish politics depends on establishing a peaceful regional setting.
25.08.2008
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